Trade Report: Astros and Rockies Deal Pitchers
ESPN.com is reporting that the Houston Astros have acquired starting pitcher Jason Jennings from the Colorado Rockies. The Astros will receive Jennings and pitcher Miguel Asencio for center fielder Willy Taveras along with pitchers Taylor Burchholz and Jason Hirsh.
The Astros found themselves needing to add a starter after Andy Pettitte decided to return to the New York Yankees and a trade for White Sox starter Jon Garland fell through.
ESPN.com summarizes the involved players' performances like this :
Jennings, who was born in Dallas, was 9-13 with a 3.78 ERA last season for the Rockies. He will make $5.5 million in 2007 and is eligible to become a free agent after next season. He is Colorado's career leader in victories (58) and shutouts (three).
Taveras hit .278 with one home run and 30 RBI this year. He had a 30-game hitting streak that ended Aug. 29.
Buchholz, whose medical reports may have caused the White Sox to back off a trade, was 6-10 with a 5.89 in 19 starts and three relief appearances. He was demoted to Triple-A Round Rock for a spell and made seven starts there.
Hirsh, a 24-year-old prospect who is highly rated, made his major league debut last season and was 3-4 with a 6.04 ERA in nine starts.
Asencio was 1-0 with a 4.70 ERA in three games with the Rockies last season and 8-7 with a 5.03 ERA in 16 starts and 22 relief appearances at Triple-A.
Jennings is currently slotted as the Astros' #2 starter behind Roy Oswalt and that is something that would make me a bit nervous if I were an Astro fan. While Jennings had a fantastic year last year, turning in a sub 4 ERA while pitching half his games in the thin air of Colorado, this was his first year with an ERA under 5 since 2002 and his career ERA is 4.74. Sure, he might have turned the corner and become a much better pitcher last year, however, he could just as easily revert to the 5.51 ERA pitcher he was in 2004. Having that type of uncertainty in your number 2 starter is less than ideal and that's before we even look at who the Astros gave up.
The Rockies on the other hand traded away a pitcher they were unlikely to resign after next year while he is at his highest value. By giving up a year of Jennings' services, the Rockies gained three major league ready players. So, which team got the better end of this deal? As usual, only time will tell. At first blush, though, I'd have to chalk this one up to the Rockies.
As usual... time will tell.
Update: In response to this post over at Hot Stove and Beyond (you should add it to your reading list if it's not already on it), I dove into Jennings' stats a bit more. Here's what I found:
I realize you (along with many Astro fans) want to feel good about this deal, however, I have to pick on your stats.
First of all, this was Jennings first year with a sub 4 ERA, EVER. His average ERA over the last three years (including his career best year last year) is still 4.71. That's not exactly #2 material.
Also, you claim that leaving Coors will drop his ERA by a ******** 1.5 runs. Well last year, Jennings actually pitched BETTER at Coors, than away from it. By almost HALF a run. Granted his career numbers are about .4 runs better on the road, but you either have to go with his numbers from last year and add half a run for a projected ERA right at 4.25 or go with his career numbers and subtract .4 runs from his average which would put him slighty higher than 4.25.
So, I'd say your new #2 pitcher is probably going to have an ERA around 4.25 NOT 3.25.
Jennings' ERA should go down to about 3.2-3.3 at MMP. He was also Rookie Of The Year while pitching for the Rockies. Jennings also had the 2nd worst run support in the NL last year--guess who had the worst run support? An Astros pitcher...
Jennings is coming home and he just said in an interview with 790 that he's happy to be home, he's happy to be on a winning team.
If I were a fan of any other team in the NL Central except the Astros, I'd worry about my team's chances of getting in the playoffs--especially if I'm a fan of a team that has made no pitching moves and has lost at least one starter already and slated to lose at least two more to free agency.
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I like this deal. You say the Astros traded away 3 league ready players, but Taveras is a weak offensive player and Buchholz and Hirsh neither one have proven they can be even an average starter in the bigs. Not saying they can't or won't, but they haven't.
You can't ignore the fact that Jennings has pitched his entire career in Denver and before last season, there wasn't even the humidor to keep the ball in the park. A number I posted about on my blog is that last season away from Coors Field the Rockies scored about 100 runs less than they did at Coors field(81 games each). Comparably, the Astros (who also have a good hitters ball park) only scored 9 more runs at home than in away games.
Not saying it's going to happen or is likely, but Jennings could reasonably pitch closer to 3.00 ERA than 4... maybe lower.
I just hope the Astros sign him to a long term deal.
-Stros Bro
www.crawfishboxes.com
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Ok, I want to see how you feel about these stats: Mike Hampton at the Astrodome in 1999: ERA of 2.90. Same Mike Hampton next two years at Coors Field with ERAs of 5.41 and 6.15? Oh, once he went to the Braves, he had an ERA of 3.84.
How about Darryl Kile and his foray to Coors Field? He posted an ERA of 2.57 in Houston while his ERA with the Rockies was 5.21 and 6.61 in his two years in Denver.
Remember this is the same Darryl Kile that pitched for the Cardinals and posted an ERA of 3.91 in 2000, 3.02 in 2001 and 3.72 in 2002 for the St Louis Cardinals.
Wouldn't you agree that Hampton and Kile were GOOD pitchers whose ERAs were artificially inflated by Coors Field?
If so, shouldn't Jennings' ERA be DEFLATED by his not pitching half his starts at Coors Field?
What's sauce for the goose has to be sauce for the gander...
Hampy and Kile were GOOD pitchers in the NL. I think it's rather disingenuous of you to say Jennings isn't as good or better pitcher based on his career stats as a member of the Rockies only.
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I think the Astros have made the best moves this off-season in the NL Central. Just because the Cubs have spent money doesn't mean they've made progress. It just means they've spent money. The Astros grabbed two great starters in Woody (even if they snatched him from under us) and Jennings--one of which is in his prime, and finally have a talented hitter to place behind Berkman in Carlos Lee. We'll have to see what transpires as we go (as we know, our Cards make the best deals right before spring training due to our genius GM), but as it stands, I'd give them the tip of the cap. Is this rotation better than last season? No, of course not, but signing Lee to a bloated contract is the kicker. Dangerous threat behind Berkman (finally) = more pitchers facing Berkman with runners on.
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Also, Minute Maid Park is a pitcher's nightmare. It doesn't have the escalation air of Coors, but it does have a hill, a flag pole, a little league left field, a circus clown juggling in the right power alley, a choo-choo train, and an elephant that can stand on a balloon for fifteen minutes straight between the dugouts. Rumor has it that they're putting in a flaming hoop for a tiger to jump through in 2008.
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Rita, I'm sorry but if you think the Mike Hampton that went to the Rockies was the same pitcher, I'd have to disagree whole heartedly. Also, the only reason Kile got better after leaving the Rockies was because of Dave Duncan. I could post a 4.00 ERA if Duncan coached me.
You're posting Hampton and Kile's stats to make your point but Jennings' stats disagree with you. How do you explain Jennings' ERA away from Coors? Over the last three years Jennings ERA away from Coors averages 4.25. NOT 3 anything.
And finally, as you mentioned, the Astros give pitchers horrible run support. Now they have added Lee which should help that but I'd bet the farm that Jennings' ERA will be closer to 4.25 than 3.25 and I'll be amazed if he wins more than 16 games (hey, even Jason Marquis won 16 games last year).
Lastly, whether Tavares or the pitchers pan out, you've traded three players for essentially to rent a pitcher for a year. Sure Taveras might not be great, but he's got speed and hits between .270 and .290. Burcholtz and Hirsh were both very highly rated pitchers in your organization but now all of the sudden they aren't any good? I don't buy it. Sorry.
This just seems like a horrible deal for the Astros.
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